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Weekly Threat Intelligence Update

Israel-U.S. Strikes Seek Regime Change in Iran, Hitting 1,000 Targets

On February 28, Israel and the U.S. began joint operations Epic Fury and Lion’s Roar, striking over 1,000 military and political targets across Iran, including the Natanz nuclear site. President Trump claims at least 48 Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have been killed. Meanwhile, Iran’s retaliation is widening and the IRGC has ordered ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting critical oil routes. Trump says the campaign is ahead of schedule but warns it could last weeks and more U.S. casualties are likely.

Severe Spring Storms Threaten Central U.S. with Hail and Tornadoes

With meteorological spring underway, a multi‑day severe weather pattern is taking shape across the central U.S. Tuesday brings a low‑end risk for isolated hail in southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. By Wednesday, the threat intensifies from Waco and Dallas into southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes possible. The focus then shifts to West Texas and western Oklahoma on Thursday, before expanding Friday into a broad zone from north‑central Texas to southeast Nebraska where all hazards are possible. On the plus side, drought‑hit areas like Austin and Dallas could receive 3–5 inches of rain, though flash flooding remains a risk.

Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Clashes Escalate into Open War

Border clashes escalated on February 27 when Afghan troops stormed over 50 Pakistani sites, prompting Pakistani air strikes on more than 20 Afghan targets near Kabul and Kandahar. Strikes continue, but the Taliban now says it is open to peace talks; the U.N. and other leaders urge de‑escalation. Afghanistan claims the attacks were not intended to widen the conflict, yet Pakistan calls the situation an “open war”. Analysts warn that without renewed mediation, the late‑2025 ceasefire could collapse, leading to a prolonged conflict with serious human and operational impacts.

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Erica Minden