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Weekly Threat Intelligence Update

Pakistan Offers Peace Plan as Iran–U.S. Standoff Deepens

Pakistan has tabled the first public peace proposal aimed at ending the Iran–U.S. conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz to most commercial shipping, disrupting global energy flows. Both Tehran and Washington are reportedly reviewing the plan, which seeks to produce a comprehensive agreement within three weeks, while Iran rejected a separate regional initiative with a 10‑point list of objections. Despite these diplomatic overtures, President Trump extended his deadline for reopening the strait to 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday and threatened to “target every power plant in the country” if Iran does not comply. With Iran widening its attacks and the U.S. returning to brinkmanship, analysts expect the conflict to intensify before any accord can be reached. The formal entry of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, a key Iranian proxy, raises fears that they might attempt to close the Bab‑el‑Mandeb Strait, further jeopardizing energy routes.

Energy Prices Surge as U.S. Considers Abandoning Hormuz Crisis

The prospect of the United States leaving the responsibility for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to the countries most dependent on it has rattled energy markets. Average U.S. gas prices have climbed above $4 per gallon, and natural gas prices are up about 60 % in parts of Europe. Fears of prolonged closure and further U.S. escalation are prompting governments worldwide to impose restrictions on travel and work as global stockpiles of oil and gas dwindle. Countries with limited domestic production are facing the steepest impacts, and consumer support measures range from mobility restrictions to fuel price caps. Rising costs and shortages have already sparked unrest and strikes in the hardest-hit nations, with demonstrations expected to spread if supply disruptions continue. Businesses should brace for sustained volatility as energy insecurity threatens to ripple through supply chains and economic activity.

Twin Cyclones Maila and Vaianu Threaten Fiji, Papua New Guinea and New Zealand

Two tropical cyclones are simultaneously intensifying in the South Pacific. Tropical Cyclone Maila has reached Category 2 strength in the Solomon Sea and is expected to linger there for at least 72 hours, potentially strengthening before turning west toward eastern Papua New Guinea; if it makes landfall, it will likely arrive as a Category 1 or 2 storm. Landfalls are rare in this region, so impacts could be severe. To the east, Tropical Cyclone Vaianu is moving between Fiji and Vanuatu and could reach Category 3 strength as it approaches Fiji late Tuesday or Wednesday. Even without direct landfall, Vaianu is forecast to deliver prolonged strong winds, heavy rain and storm surges that may trigger widespread flooding, landslides, power outages and hazardous travel. Evacuation centers are open, flood warnings are in place, and the system’s remnants could bring heavy rains and gusty winds to New Zealand next week.

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Erica Minden