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Weekly Threat Intelligence Update

Oil Tops $100 as Israel Targets Iranian Energy and Trade

Israel and U.S. forces intensified their coordinated campaign against Iran over the weekend, striking military installations and energy facilities across Hamadan, Isfahan and Tehran. Israel claims thousands of targets remain, while Washington has sent an amphibious assault ship and 2,500 Marines to the region—an indicator of potential ground operations. President Trump warned that if Iranian forces attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz he will strike the Kharg Island oil export hub; Iran has already suffered drone and missile attacks on its energy infrastructure and retaliated against Gulf states. The United Arab Emirates’ only export route that bypasses the strait at Fujairah has been hit twice, and a drone incident temporarily closed Dubai airport, underscoring the expanding threat to business hubs. Amidst these escalations, oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, prompting emergency releases from strategic reserves and highlighting the fragility of global supply chains.

17‑Nation Coalition Unites to Combat Latin American Cartels

At the inaugural Shield of the Americas Summit in Miami, President Trump announced the formation of an Americas Counter Cartel Coalition, bringing together 17 countries to confront increasingly militarised criminal organisations across Latin America. The alliance signals a shift toward joint military operations to eradicate cartels, whose command, control and weapons capabilities rival national armies. As an early move, U.S. advisors have supported Ecuador’s launch of a massive security operation, mobilising 35 000 security personnel across the country on March 15. It remains unclear whether U.S. troops will deploy directly on foreign soil, but Ecuador’s alignment with Washington suggests similar operations could follow in other countries whose governments cooperate closely with the United States. Businesses operating in the region should monitor for potential supply‑chain disruptions and reputational risks as counter‑cartel campaigns intensify.

Level 4 Storm Risk Threatens 12.5 M Across Eastern U.S.

The Eastern U.S. is bracing for its first major severe‑weather outbreak of 2026. A potent storm system stretching from New York to Florida has already produced more than 450 damaging wind reports and will reach peak intensity Monday evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed over 12.5 million people from central Maryland through northern South Carolina under a Level 4 of 5 severe‑weather risk, with damaging winds up to 75 mph and a chance of strong tornadoes. Thunderstorms will peak from central North Carolina to Washington D.C., threatening widespread power outages, flight cancellations and hazardous travel conditions along the busy I‑95 corridor. Behind the cold front, temperatures will tumble by up to 40 °F, bringing heavy snow to parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania and New York and creating icy roadways for the Tuesday morning commute.

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Erica Minden